Gregory Nemet

I examine investments in R&D in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity, which are correlated with investment. I build on prior work on the optimal level of energy R&D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. I then compare these levels to past public R&D programs and industry investment data to gauge their feasibility. [Paper] [Data]

I am a doctoral candidate in the Energy and Resources Group (ERG) at the University of California, Berkeley. My dissertation research aims to contribute to understanding the process of innovation in the energy sector to inform technology policy and models. My committee consists of Daniel Kammen (ERG), Severin Borenstein (Business), and Margaret Taylor (Public Policy). The papers in my dissertation examine distinct parts of the innovation process and its interactions with policy. These papers include:
1. Investment in Energy R&D I examine investments in R&D in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity, which are correlated with investment. I build on prior work on the optimal level of energy R&D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. I then compare these levels to past public R&D programs and industry investment data to gauge their feasibility. [Paper] [Data]
2. Quantifying Sources of Cost Reductions in PV In work begun at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, I have developed a simple model quantifying the sources of cost reductions in photovoltaics. Plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon account for almost all of the change in cost since 1980. Learning-by-doing, the mechansim behind learning curves, only weakly explains change in these most important factors. One implication is that policy design needs to take into account the critical role of expectations, in addition to experience. [Paper]
3. Evaluating the demand-pull hypothesis for wind power The notion that policy can induce investment---and consequent improvements---in technologies by creating markets for them enjoys support from a wide range of disciplinary perspectives. This paper uses the case of wind power in California to evaluate this hypothesis. The results urge further study---and perhaps also caution among policy makers---about the extent to which public technology strategies that rely heavily on demand-pull provide sufficient incentives for innovation when non-incremental innovation may be needed to achieve societal goals. [Abstract]
4. The Net Effect of Widespread PV on Climate Widespread diffusion of apparently-beneficial technologies can have unintended social consequences. Might terawatt-scale installation of photovoltaics lower the earth's reflectivity and contribute to warming of the atmosphere? Yes, but the substitution of PV for fossil fuels dominates this albedo effect. The radiative forcing avoided by substituting PV for fossil fuels is a factor of 50 larger than the radiative forcing caused by PV's effect on the earth's albedo. [Abstract]
Other Projects -- California climate policy (Berkeley) -- Energy, emissions, and technology policy (U. Cambridge) -- California clean energy initiative

I co-lead Berkeley’s Climate Change Policy seminar, a bi-weekly forum that includes students, faculty, and researchers from across the campus.
Prior to my doctoral studies I worked as a research manager at the Institute for the Future. I also worked at the Planning Technologies Group where I provided modeling support for scenario planning exercises. I received my Master’s degree in Energy and Resources from Berkeley and a Bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College in Geography and Economics.