1. Refinement of the conceptual model developed at the November 2005 meeting, including feedback from the broader evolutionary biology group. Our work will entail definition of major evolutionary processes that contribute to diversification and identification of suitable environmental surrogates that can be used to map them spatially. The resulting conceptual framework will be submitted to a review group including prominent evolutionary biologists that have indicated interest in this project.
   Projected completion: end April 2006

2. Collation of environmental and biological data. For the spatial model of evolutionary hotspots to function accurately, we must have both relevant environmental data (at appropriate spatial scales) to feed into the model and biological (eg. lineage distributions and molecular phylogenies) with which to test the model. This step of the research will be undertaken concurrently with step 1, with the quality and availability of data informing the selection of environmental variables in step 1. Data required will include: geologic structure/dynamics, substrate, topography, temperature, precipitation, biogeographic and phylogeographic boundaries, evolutionary distances, and vegetation dynamics. To place our results in the context of current protected areas, and thus to identify gaps, we will require a spatial surface of protected landscapes for California.
   Projected Completion: June 1 2006

3. Presentation and discussion of the conceptual model and project strategy at a workshop at the Society for Conservation Biology meeting in San Jose. This workshop will, in effect, constitute a progress report, as well as providing a vehicle for feedback from the broader conservation biology community.
   June 24-27 2006

4. Selection of areas for fine-grained spatial analysis to complement coarse-grained state-wide analysis. This depends on availability of fine-grained environmental data and of relevant georeferenced information on lineage (species, phylogeographic units) distributions and relationships. Ideally, we will be able to use information from multiple taxonomic groups – eg. terrestrial vertebrates, selected plant and insect groups. Selection of focal area(s) will be informed by discussions with conservation stakeholders, including CA State Parks. This may reveal some areas where limited support to existing student projects can produce quick results that will fill crucial gaps in biological information. Resources obtained from other sources will extend the available biological data, especially in relation to plants and invertebrates.
   Projected completion: end July 2006

5. Development of spatial model of evolutionary hotspots. This will combine the environmental surrogates in a statewide spatial model, exploring different ways of combining predictive variables that focus on different evolutionary processes expected to generate diversity. We expect that the spatial resolution will be sufficient to inform applications of the model at multiple scales – eg. statewide and regional.
   Projected completion: end September

6. Evaluation of predictive models using biological data. Available data on lineage distributions and relationships will be used to test the performance of the model(s) at either statewide or regional levels depending on the availability of suitable data at either scale. The model will be modified (eg. by iteratively re-weighting variables) to maximize performance at both scales. This will determine the spatial scale at which the environmental surrogates can be expected to provide robust predictions.
   Projected completion: end December

7. Preparation of final report to RLG & State Parks; manuscript(s) for publication.
   Projected completion: end February 2007

Museum of Vertebrate Zoology UC-Berkeley
Last modified on: 27 March 2006
Contact: Craig Moritz