Table of Contents
Drug War Heresies: Learning from
Other Vices, Times, and Places*
Background
Our Goals
Conclusions
Outline
Difficulties of Inference from
other nations
Italy Conducted a “Natural Experiment” in
Drug Policy
Italy Conducted a “Natural Experiment” in
Drug Policy
Italy Conducted a “Natural Experiment” in
Drug Policy
Drug Deaths Rose During Italy’s First
Depenalization . . .
. . . but Fell When They Repenalized
. . .
. . . and Rose Again When They
Redepenalized
but Same Pattern in Spain (depenalization
since 1975) . . .
. . . and in Germany (no depenalization
during period)
Observations
Background
The Swiss Trials
Protocol Was Carefully Constructed
Outcomes
Swiss Trials Establish Feasibility
of Maintenance
How Is Switzerland Different from
United States?
Netherlands Drug Policy 1976-present
Gateway effect modest
Change Had No Effect on Prevalence
During First Decade...
…But Use Increased Sharply in
Second Decade
Dutch Use Caught Up to U.S.
… And Surpassed Oslo
Why? Shift from Depenalization
to De Facto Legalization
Decriminalization Evidence: No
Effect on Prevalence
Legalization Increases Use
Outline
Goal of drug policy is to reduce
total harm
Average harm ¹ Total harm
Could cocaine, heroin or marijuana
be tightly regulated?
Uncertainty about Legalization
Consequences
Not a cost-benefit calculation
Goal Should Be to Integrate Harm
and Use Reduction
Need to Distinguish Goals, Policies,
Implementation
Policies Can Effect Prevalence
and Harms Differently
Policies and Outcomes Are Each
Influenced by Other Factors
Outline
Drug policy has modest effect
on drug problems
Drug problems have large effects
on drug policies
Most important policies for drug
problems may not be those targeted on drugs
Conclusions
|
Author: CSD19991217
Email: maccoun@socrates.berkeley.edu
Home Page: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~maccoun
|