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FLASH 15 (1/18/02): NEW OPIUM BAN AND PROMISE OF US AID (updated 1/25/02)

On January 16, 2002, two important and linked developments gave new hope that warlordism may still be averted in Afghanistan. The first was a decree from Afghanistan's new interim leader, Hamid Karzai, banning all cultivation and traffic in opium. The second, announced by Secretary of State Colin Powell in Kabul at Hamid Karzai's side, was Washington's commitment to support the new government financially in its drive to stamp out corruption and warlordism.

The New York Times reported on 1/17/02 that

"Afghanistan's interim leader issued a decree yesterday banning the cultivation of opium poppies, reviving a struggle previously waged by the Taliban against Afghanistan's most lucrative crop, United Nations officials reported.

"`All countrymen, especially peasants and farmers, are informed that from now on, the cultivation, manufacturing, processing, impermissible use, smuggle and trafficking of opium poppy and all its derivatives is declared illegal,' said the order issued by Hamid Karzai, the chairman of the interim administration in Kabul. `Violators will be dealt with severely.'

"Without an army or police force, it was unlikely that Mr. Karzai would be able to enforce the decree in a serious way. But the order came just days before donor countries were to gather in Tokyo to pledge reconstruction aid to Afghanistan, which may amount to $15 billion over the next decade. There, Mr. Karzai is expected to seek help for crop-substitution programs to encourage farmers to abandon poppies."

The $297 million that the US has pledged in aid for Afghanistan may prove to be insufficient to strengthen the Afghan government and economy and free them from dependence on the drug traffic. As the Atlanta Constitution pointed out on 1/18/02, what is needed is much more than another Marshall Plan: "Whereas the task in Europe was reconstruction, the task in Afghanistan, in some respects, is not rebuilding but building from scratch. Powell, visiting Kabul on Thursday, called Afghanistan a "start-up country."

According to the BBC (1/17/02), Colin Powell said President George Bush "is committed to this cause for as long as it takes." It is to be hoped that Congress will share and reinforce this resolve.

One must however be concerned that the drug trade does not relocate to some new host country, such as Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan, reinforcing yet more social conflict and pressure for US intervention. Past experience should make us aware that the drug traffic is locally well entrenched, with corrupt contacts in many governments. The war has not dismantled them, as the following AP story of 1/14/02 makes clear.

Meanwhile drcnet.org reports that Afghan opium traders welcome the ban as a remedy to falling prices, while one old trader "doubted the will of the loose alliance of warlords who run the country to honor the ban. `The people with guns will keep growing it, and big businessmen will benefit the most,' he said." (Cf. New York Times, 1/19/02.)