Manuel Camacho Solís "Where is Mexico Headed?" October 18, 2006

Manuel Camacho Solís (left) walks through Sproul Plaza with Professor Harley Shaiken, the Chair of the Center for Latin American Studies, on their way to the talk.

- Article on this event by Jean L. Spencer

Moving Beyond Mobilization
By Eugenio Urquiza Fernández

The 2006 elections are over and so are the protests led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) presidential candidate. After several weeks of uncertainty, the Federal Electoral Tribunal issued a final decree formally naming Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) president-elect. But with Calderón and López Obrador each obtaining roughly 35 percent of the vote and the latter claiming fraud, the country remains deeply divided.

In his UC Berkeley address, Manuel Camacho Solís, López Obrador’s primary political strategist, began by illustrating the division with a map of Mexico ’s 32 states, each shown in either blue or yellow, depending on whether it had gone to the PAN or to the PRD-led coalition in the 2006 presidential election. Manuel Camacho Solís then explained that the post-electoral conflict was due, in part, to the exclusion of the PRD in the selection and ratification of officials in the two bodies responsible for certifying election results: the Electoral Tribunal and the Federal Electoral Institute. Because the ratification of officials requires only a majority vote in congress, together the PAN and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) were able to appoint the officials despite opposition from the PRD and its coalition partners, the Labor Party (PT) and Convergencia.

Camacho Solís also criticized the media saying that the concentration of power in Mexico´s two major television networks effectively silenced the coalition’s voice after the election. In particular, he blamed the networks’ business interests with the government and claimed that Mexico ’s media is simply another obstacle to democracy saying, “Soviet-type television in a country that presumes to be democratic does not help to legitimize politics.”

Still, others would argue that the recent decline in the coalition’s media coverage stems from the public’s electoral exhaustion and not from government influence. For over a year the electoral fight has saturated the airwaves. The coalition’s post-electoral allegations, mobilizations and traffic-snarling blockades paralyzed downtown Mexico City , taking its toll on the coalition’s popularity and subjecting it to sharp criticism from some of the left-leaning intellectuals that had supported it. In fact, many analysts have noted that the coalition’s belligerent stance in Mexico City contributed to last week’s defeat of the PRD by the PRI in the Tabasco gubernatorial election. The defeat is significant considering that the state of Tabasco was a bright yellow state in the presidential election, that it is home to López Obrador and that he campaigned heavily for the PRD’s candidate.

Looking past the election crisis, Camacho Solís outlined two possible “middle term” political scenarios. Post-electoral conflict could lead to continued confrontation, institutional paralysis, instability and anarchy, or it could serve to launch deep institutional reform. He warned that without a sincere commitment to reform, the first scenario would prevail.

Camacho Solís identified several problem areas these reforms should address including the lack of economic growth, the inaccessibility of affordable credit and the troubled education system. He also decried Mexico ’s monopolistic tendencies, judicial impunity and weak financial system dominated by foreign banks. He noted that the Washington Consensus has not delivered economic growth and emphasized the importance of addressing the country’s income distribution in addition to ensuring a minimum level of welfare for all citizens. Regarding a legislative agenda, the former congressman took the view that the PRD should let the governing party address economic growth, since the PAN and PRI have a vested interest there, while the PRD should emphasize the social programs for which it is well known.

Following his initial comments, Camacho Solís was asked pointed questions about his past, in particular about his role as president of the PRI in 1988 (when it is widely believed PRI fraudulently took the election from PRD founder and candidate, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas). He replied that the PRI has spawned many respected politicians such as Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, López Obrador and Muñoz Ledo. Another student pressed him on this issue by pointing to how his current demands for a recount contrast with his refusal to a recount in the 1988 election, Camacho Solís replied, “There goes the PAN’s propaganda tape.” He continued, “This [election] was completely different…in that time [1988], we did not have freedom in the media.” With this Camacho Solís implied that the media is freer today, somewhat undermining his earlier attack on the Mexico ’s “Soviet-type” media.

When asked about the allegations of electoral fraud made by López Obrador and the coalition, Camacho Solís clarified that he, personally, had never made such allegations and said, “There was no generalized fraud, no cybernetic fraud. Those were reactions…by people who knew that something had happened and wanted to find explanations at that time.” He went on to say that some small, localized fraudulent practices did occur in some states and, considering the tight margin, these practices may have affected the outcome. He concluded by stating that instead of focusing on the election, he would rather find solutions to the current political crisis.

It’s clear that solving the political crisis is essential, but it’s only a first step. Due to the long congressional and executive stalemate during the Fox administration, critical reforms addressing global competitiveness, poverty, education, energy and fiscal reform have now become so urgent that the country cannot afford obstructionism and political infighting. If structural reforms are to be accomplished in this presidential term, both the PAN and PRD must start by finding and stressing areas of agreement. Hopefully, this will force the parties to work together constructively on the many intrinsically tough issues that evenly paint Mexico ’s electoral map with the familiar colors of yellow and blue.

Manuel Camacho Solís is the primary strategist for former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador as well as a former presidential candidate himself. He has been the mayor of Mexico City , a congressman and president of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). He spoke at CLAS on October 18 th.

Eugenio Urquiza Fernández is a Mexican citizen and a graduate student in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at UC Berkeley.